Asia Pacific, 25 April 2025 – Business confidence among global accountants continued to slide in the first quarter of 2025, albeit at a slower pace compared to the sharp drop at the end of 2024. The latest Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) from ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) reveals that global sentiment is now at its lowest point since the height of the pandemic in Q2 2020.
The survey, conducted between late February and mid-March, captured sentiment prior to the United States’ major announcement on import tariffs—an event that has since heightened downside risks to the global economic outlook.
Stark Contrasts: U.S. Confidence Crumbles, Asia Pacific Rebounds
The most striking decline in confidence was observed in North America, with a particularly steep fall in the United States. Confidence among U.S.-based finance professionals is now at its second-lowest level on record. Survey responses cited U.S. trade policies and reductions in government spending as major factors behind the decline. Capital expenditure and employment indices in the U.S. remained weak, although the New Orders Index saw a modest rise and is approaching its long-term average.
By contrast, Asia Pacific saw a notable uptick in confidence following sustained declines over the previous two quarters. While overall sentiment remains slightly below the regional average, the New Orders Index climbed to one of its highest levels in recent years—an encouraging sign for near-term business activity. The Employment Index also rose above average levels, although Capital Expenditure sentiment declined, indicating uneven recovery.
Mainland China was a key driver of improved sentiment in the region, as confidence and new orders surged since Q3 2024. While this may partly reflect exporters accelerating shipments ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff hikes, it also signals early signs of economic recovery in China.
A Cautious Outlook Amid Rising Trade Frictions
“Global growth has generally proved quite resilient over recent quarters. Nonetheless, the longer that confidence remains depressed, the greater the risk that a self-reinforcing negative cycle could potentially develop, with firms pulling back on orders, capital expenditure and hiring,” said Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist at ACCA. “Unfortunately, with global trade tensions stepping up markedly since the survey was completed, the downside risks to the global economy have increased significantly.”
Confidence also improved in Western Europe, reversing some of the steep declines observed in previous quarters. However, escalating trade concerns remain a growing threat, especially in light of recent U.S. protectionist policies. Meanwhile, cost pressures remain a pressing issue globally. They continue to be severe in Western Europe and saw significant increases in North America.
“New U.S. policies on trade and government spending, and the uncertainty surrounding them, appear to have had a large negative impact on confidence, while declines in the global markets and signs of slowing in the U.S. economy were likely factors too,” added Alain Mulder, Senior Director, Europe Operations & Global Special Projects at IMA.
Top Risks: Economic Conditions, Cybersecurity, and Geopolitics
The global economy remained the most prominent risk for finance professionals in Q1. However, risk perceptions varied across sectors. In financial services, cybersecurity emerged as the top concern, while in the public and not-for-profit sector, it was tied with talent scarcity. For the corporate sector, economic uncertainty ranked first, followed closely by geopolitical instability—the latter reaching second place overall for the first time, with U.S.-based respondents voicing particular concern over recent policy shifts and tariff implications.
Read the full GECS Q1 2025 report here.
